I am hopeful and optimistic, that Ohio will go for President Obama. (As they say in politics, "So goes Ohio, so goes the Nation.") I have also, after playing with CNN's election map app - given Nevada, the Carolinas and Florida to Romney (and his homestate of New Hampshire, which I think I was being generous about.) But rather than the "sideburn" states that Kerry won, I think there are distinctive in-roads that Obama will carry -- Colorado has been leaning more progressive lately I think, and New Mexico's high latino rate will recognize how much the President has tried to do only to be held back by the Republicans.
I will probably revise this in the future, but this is what I see happening right now.